Last week’s provincial election, which saw Premier Doug Ford re-elected with his third majority mandate, raises an interesting question for the again-third party Liberals. Where does the party go from here?
The Liberals were facing the likely existential threat of falling short of party status in a third straight election. They survived this election by winning the 12 seats needed (and more), but they remain the third party and have not had a permanent leader with a seat in the legislature since 2018.
Once the results were in, the knives were out. Disgruntled Liberals were not shy in calling for Leader Bonnie Crombie to step down. Even some longtime Liberal organizers who backed Crombie for leader in 2023 joined the calls for change.
The loss also prompted moves like party president Kathryn McGarry and NDP MPP Catherine Fife meeting to discuss how the two parties could cooperate. That is a decision that left many Liberals shocked and confused, as Crombie did not campaign for leader on a promise to work with the NDP.
With so much open dissent from party members and important decisions that need to be made, Crombie and the Liberals must hold an election debrief and leadership review before the end of the year. She needs a new mandate.
You may be asking, why would this be urgent with the next election in 2029?
The Liberals did win back party status, but with 14 seats and a premier who has been known to move the goalposts, it does not leave the party in a comfortable position. Taking any kind of step back could be the end of the Ontario Liberal Party as we know it.
The more time Liberals spend debating whether Crombie can or should lead the party through the next election, the less time there is to consolidate the gains that were made and find ways to improve on the result. Many of those ideas, like focusing on early nominations, also require members of riding associations to be united behind the leader.
A leadership review in 2025 would help unite Liberals before the dissent gets out of hand, giving Crombie the breathing room and support needed to build on the party’s gains.
In the unlikely scenario that the membership does not buy Crombie’s pitch for a new mandate, the party will need as much time as possible to introduce a new leader to voters. The last thing the party needs is another one- or two-year sprint for a rookie leader.
There is also the ever-looming possibility that Premier Ford once again calls an early election at a time most favourable to his party and further shortens the runway. After all, he did muse about wanting to be “premier forever” in the last campaign.
Failing to at least win back the 14 seats in 2029 because of a drawn-out process that either damages the leader or robs a new leader of time would be catastrophic.
Crombie has lots to celebrate between winning 30 per cent of the popular vote, finally reaching party status at the legislature, and exceeding expectations on fundraising. She also has lots to answer for after not only losing her own seat, but being outperformed by three of her fellow Mississauga candidates, failing to capitalize on what should have been an NDP collapse, and not doing much, if any, serious structural rebuilding of the party.
Many believe she has earned a second shot as leader, including the party’s executive council, which has no formal say in the matter, but expressed its support on Saturday. She certainly deserves the opportunity to make that pitch to the members, to whom the Liberal constitution gives the ultimate decision-making authority, at an annual general meeting overseen by an independent returning officer and committee.
One thing is clear: after an unnecessary election called to give Premier Ford a new mandate, it is Ontario’s opposition leaders who now need one.
Will Wuehr is a consultant at Crestview Strategy, a Liberal riding association president, and served as spokesperson to a past Ontario Liberal Party leader.
