The Ontario NDP announced in December that it would postpone a convention scheduled for Jan. 17-19 as it prepares to fight possible "snap provincial and federal elections." Here, a senior New Democrat explains the thinking and shares his thoughts on Premier Doug Ford’s election strategy.
Ottawa’s a mess. To call the current situation in Justin Trudeau’s government a dumpster fire would be to understate how contained dumpster fires are.
Sitting back and watching this, Ontario Premier Doug Ford likely sees an opportunity — and a risk. Sparks from Ottawa are landing in provincial politics, and Ford is unlikely to want to wait to find out how bad the collateral damage could get. Instead, it appears he’s setting the stage for an early election and breaking Ontario’s fixed election date law along the way.
Ford’s strategy is clear: strike first, control the agenda and keep people’s anger focused on anyone but himself. Some doubt this plan, but he’s thrived by keeping his opponents off balance and pointing fingers at Ottawa for Ontario’s struggles. Housing crisis? Blame Trudeau. Rising costs? Blame Trudeau. Economic uncertainty? You guessed it — blame Trudeau.
So far, it’s worked. Ford has managed to sell himself as the steady hand compared to the federal chaos, at least to those who look past broken promises, backroom land deals and his government’s habit of enriching its friends.
But even Teflon wears thin. Ford knows the longer he waits, the more likely it is that federal drama spills into Ontario and unravels the narrative he’s worked so hard to build.
In December, Ford prepared for an early election call with a flurry of funding announcements. From rural communities to urban centres, there was a little something for everyone — though, as always, big developers and Ford insiders got their beaks wet too. Whether it was housing money for struggling cities or infrastructure projects dressed up as “for the people,” Ford made sure no one felt left out of his December rush.
Word is that Ford’s been reluctant to go to the polls early, but knows that not calling an election soon is a gamble. And if, like me, you’ve been listening to political podcasts lately (and if you’ve read this far, I would say chances are good that you have been), you will have noticed that Ford’s party has put anti-Bonnie Crombie ads into heavy rotation. Those ads are yet another sign that Ford is gearing up to hit the campaign trail.
Kory Teneycke, one of Ford’s top advisers and his campaign manager, has made no secret of his belief that acting sooner is better. The political winds might not be as favourable in a year, and if Ford locks in a win now, he could sidestep whatever comes next in Ottawa.
Still, Ford’s gamble isn’t risk-free.
The Ontario NDP, under Marit Stiles, has been quietly organizing and focusing its resources on the ground. Cancelling their convention raised some eyebrows, but it was a smart move.
Instead of spending precious time and money on a big party event, organizers, staff and volunteers — not to mention Stiles and her caucus — can stay focused on connecting with everyday people and building their campaign.
Stiles doesn’t need to outshine Ford’s theatrics. She just needs Ontarians to see the relatable, committed and passionate leader she is. She’s been crisscrossing the province, talking to workers and families about their struggles with housing, health care and affordability.
The more Ontarians get to know Stiles, the more they like her. As someone who has worked across northern Ontario and raised her family in Toronto, Stiles gets “it” in a way that most politicians claim to, but few actually do. She has the ability to connect with people in a real way, and she has the experience to fight for solutions and deliver better.
Then there’s Crombie and the Ontario Liberals. Despite Crombie’s significance and the hype that initially surrounded her leadership, she hasn’t sparked the revival the Liberals were hoping for. After near-collapse in the last two elections, the Liberals still feel like leftover Christmas fruitcake — familiar but not at all exciting.
Meanwhile, Ford’s biggest wild card is Ottawa. If Trudeau calls a federal election first, it will dominate the airwaves and overshadow anything Ford tries to do provincially.
Worse for Ford, a federal Conservative win under Pierre Poilievre could backfire. Poilievre’s hard-edged culture-war rhetoric doesn’t always sit well with Ontarians, who tend to prefer Ford’s more casual, beer-league populism. And if Poilievre takes over in Ottawa, Ford loses his favourite scapegoat.
Doug Ford’s political success has always depended on luck and timing. But those tools aren’t foolproof. If Ford gambles on an early election, Ontarians will decide whether his timing was clever — or just desperate.
George Soule was born and raised in northern Ontario, is a principal at Syntax Strategic and has worked for federal and provincial NDP leaders in opposition and government.
