There's an optics problem in the Ontario Liberal leadership race

Nate Erskine-Smith has a problem.  

When the Liberal MP from Beaches-East York announced back in May that he wanted to compete for the vacant Ontario Liberal leadership, he captured a ton of attention. At age 39 and impressively articulate, Erskine-Smith portrayed himself as a serious, thoughtful leader, the choice of the next generation, coming down the 401 to rescue the provincial Liberals who have failed to achieve official party status in two consecutive elections. 

But his plans got waylaid by a candidate more than 20 years his senior, who also happens to be the only woman in the race. That’s made Erskine-Smith's task infinitely more complicated. 

All that was well on display last week in the Liberals’ third leadership debate, held at the Isabel Bader Theatre at Victoria University, University of Toronto. The four contenders waded into deep policy discussions, in which they were all in violent agreement with one another. For much of the night, the candidates actually applauded each others’ answers. At one point, Erskine-Smith even said: “We haven’t had much of a debate tonight.” 

No kidding. It was more like a pleasant conversation in a salon. Kudos to the audience for hanging in so long. 

But then, Erskine-Smith tried to turn it into a debate. Referring to comments made by Bonnie Crombie (on leave from her job as mayor of Mississauga) about housing policy, Erskine-Smith poked, “It’s a wonderful thing that Mayor Crombie has changed her mind.” He then tried to criticize Crombie’s alleged lack of action on increasing housing density in her city. Until that moment — fully one hour and forty minutes into the “debate” — never was heard a discouraging word by any of the candidates about one another. 

The crowd understood the moment for what it was — the first bona fide attempt by one candidate to create some doubt about the record of another — confirmed by the oooh’s and ahhhh’s the moment created in the audience. 

But Crombie was equal, even better, to the challenge. She blasted back with a stemwinder of a response, rising in volume like a church revival meeting of how Mississauga “used to be a sleepy suburb a decade ago,” but had been transformed into “an inclusive, dynamic city with 25,000 new housing units being built on the waterfront. You’re all going to want to live in Mississauga!” she told the crowd over increasing applause. “Please come!” 

It was a great moment for Crombie and given the sustained cheering, there was no opportunity for the soft-spoken Erskine-Smith to respond. It was also the one moment in an otherwise ho-hum two hours of deep policy discussion that demonstrated the extraordinarily difficult strategic problem the three male challengers to Crombie’s front-runner status face. 

It is not sexist or ageist to point out these facts: Crombie is the lone woman in the race, facing three younger men (Erskine-Smith, MP Yasir Naqvi, and MPP Ted Hsu). When the candidates take to the debate stage, it becomes abundantly clear as they say on Sesame Street that one of these things is not like the others. 

And then there’s the age issue, which captured headlines over the summer when Erskine-Smith made a not-so-thinly veiled reference to Crombie’s being 63. 

“We should be thinking of this as what kind of party do we want to build for the next 15 to 20 years,” Erskine-Smith told a Toronto Star columnist in July.  “I think I have that opportunity to build renewal in a way that Crombie doesn’t.”

Crombie fired back in an op-ed: “Direct or veiled, any suggestion that a woman’s age has a negative impact on her ability to contribute, to make a difference or make a long-term commitment to her work, isn’t just plain wrong — it’s harmful.” 

As for the gender issue, it’s a great strategic advantage for Crombie. In fairness, she doesn’t play it up or reference it. She doesn’t have to. Audiences are understandably, even subconsciously, affected by the optics these debates provide. And the optics of a younger, much taller man attacking an older, much shorter woman simply don’t work for Erskine-Smith, particularly when that older, shorter woman knows how to punch back plenty hard, given her three years as an opposition MP from 2008 to 2011 and her more than a decade on Mississauga city council. 

I spoke with an Erskine-Smith adviser after the debate who acknowledged the campaign has yet to figure out how not to be bested by Crombie during these kinds of exchanges. 

Naqvi and Hsu had solid moments during the debate, particularly Hsu, the MPP from Kingston-and-the-Islands, who demonstrated a wonderfully passionate demeanour and excitement for the job in every answer. But neither man attempted to lay a glove on the front-runner. 

It raises the problematic question: how do three male candidates — all thought to be trailing Crombie based on money raised, endorsements, and members signed up — attack the front-runner without looking like they’re picking on the lone female candidate? 

Based on Tuesday night’s debate, it’s clear none of the men has an answer to this question. And if they can’t find one before November 25 when the voting begins, it’s hard to see how they’ll change the dynamic of a race which looks like it’s well on its way to crowning Crombie the next leader. 

There are two more Liberal leadership debates to come. The challengers thus have two more opportunities to figure this out. So far, they sure haven’t. 

Steve Paikin is a member of the TVO bargaining unit of the Canadian Media Guild that is on strike. He is writing a weekly column for The Trillium during the labour dispute.