As voters in Kitchener Centre prepared to head to the polls on Nov. 30 to choose who to send to Queen’s Park as their new representative, there was a battle playing out on the lawns of downtown residents.
A mixture of mostly orange and green placards — with touches of red sprinkled in — patterned the front of every few homes.
Although the prominence of two parties’ lawn signs is one of a number of signals pointing to a two-candidate contest unfolding in this Thursday’s byelection, all three of the provinces’ major progressive-leaning options hope to have a shot.
Ontario’s New Democrats want to keep the riding orange, as it’s been since Laura Mae Lindo’s 2018 victory.
Lindo’s July 13 resignation forced a byelection in the riding. Childcare costs were too much to bear for a single-mother MPP who regularly worked between Kitchener and Toronto, she wrote in her formal resignation letter.
The successor
Debbie Chapman, a twice-elected councillor in one of the wards within Kitchener Centre, is hoping to hang onto Lindo’s seat for the NDP.
While the NDP spent much of the fall sitting trying to ram up the pressure on Premier Doug Ford’s government over the Greenbelt scandal, the official Opposition party has also dealt with a major distraction of its own that has produced ripples spilling over into Chapman’s byelection effort.
After the standoff between NDP Leader Marit Stiles and MPP Sarah Jama ended with the latter’s removal from caucus on Oct. 23, Lindo chimed in to support the rookie MPP.
Days later and less than a week before the byelection was called, the NDP’s Kitchener Centre riding association tweeted a letter calling for Stiles’ resignation.
Chapman said two riding association members were behind the letter, leaving her in the dark before its release. They’ve both since left the riding association, said Chapman, who called the situation “unfortunate,” while also promising to “rebuild” the NDP’s local riding association.
Since then, Stiles and other NDP MPPs have made numerous trips to Kitchener Centre in support of her election bid. Over the course of the campaign, Stiles’ NDP has hammered away at Queen’s Park in an attempt to secure Kitchener-Waterloo two-way, all-day GO Transit service.
Chapman told The Trillium last Wednesday that she’s confident she remains the favourite to win and that she “looks forward to carrying her (Lindo’s) legacy forward over the next few years.”
The NDP candidate also agreed that Aislinn Clancy of Ontario’s Greens is who’s likeliest to play spoiler, an opinion shared by sources in each of their camps, along with many others associated with the province’s four major provincial parties.
Green history on the line
Clancy said felt she was nipping at Chapman’s heels — if they weren’t neck-and-neck — when she spoke with The Trillium in Kitchener Centre on Nov. 22,
Clancy is also a city councillor, taking on that role about a year ago after winning in the 2022 municipal elections. She represents the ward west of Chapman’s, also within Kitchener Centre.
Both the Greens and NDP have mounted massive campaign efforts. Hundreds of volunteers have contributed to each, with multiple star politicians associated with each party lending their support over the writ period.
In the Greens’ campaign, two magic Mikes — Schreine and Morricer — have acted as an important backbone.
Mike Schreiner is the leader of the Ontario Green Party and its lone MPP at Queen’s Park, where he represents Guelph. His back-to-back elections in 2018 and 2022 are the only times an Ontario Green candidate has won a seat in the Ontario legislature.
Mike Morrice, a federal Green Party MP, represents Kitchener Centre in the House of Commons. His 2021 victory marked the first time a federal Green MP was elected in an Ontario riding.
Clancy met Morrice, who she now calls “a real mentor,” during her earlier forays into political volunteering, while she was still a social worker. They met during the 2019 federal election when Morrice made significant gains as the Greens’ candidate but ultimately finished as the runner-up.
After a few years of fulfilling the responsibilities typical of a volunteer in politics, like “canvassing,” making phone calls, and “cleaning toilets,” Clancy decided to run herself.
Ford’s PCs’ 2022 re-election inspired her to jump to the provincial level.
“I found a lot of hope and inspiration and empowerment by being involved over the years and felt like when Doug (Ford) won again (in) 2022, that I felt like I had a good tool box and… I was really motivated to reduce the harms (of the PC government) in any way I could,” Clancy said.
In door-knocking and other campaigning, Clancy has relied on Schreiner and Morrice as examples of elected Greens who’ve been able to punch above their weight. The MPP and MP have also each joined Clancy on the campaign trail.
“(Everyone at) all the doors I knock on… see the difference that Mike Morrice makes in our community,” Clancy said. “He’s so connected and so hard-working and he’s an independent voice.”
A byelection win by Clancy would mark another historic moment in Green Party politics, with her having a chance to be the Greens’ second-ever MPP elected in Ontario.
Although Chapman and Clancy saw themselves running in a two-person race with eight days until voting day, the Ontario Liberals’ candidate Kelly Steiss didn’t accept that notion.
Rebuilding in real-time
But there’s also a strong Liberal legacy in the riding, which was held by the Grits during the 15 years they were in power before 2018, when Lindo flipped it in favour of the New Democrats.
Both Steiss and Bonnie Crombie — a Liberal party leadership hopeful who visited Kitchener Centre last week to help out the byelection candidate’s campaign — said they don’t put much weight on the preponderance of green and orange on the riding’s lawns.
“Signs don’t vote,” Crombie said in an interview she and Steiss did together with The Trillium.
“I can tell you confidently that every one of the signs that I have up on people's property has been approved by the people that live there,” Steiss added. “And I can say confidently that the other candidates cannot state the same.”
This byelection is Steiss’ second attempt at running provincially in Kitchener Centre. She was also the Liberal candidate in the 2022 election, placing a distant third with about 15 per cent of votes.
Steiss’ pre-politics background is in municipal governance. She’s worked for the City of Kitchener’s public service for more than two decades.
Crombie’s visit to her last week was one of many paid to the riding by the Liberals’ leadership candidates and MPPs over the course of Steiss’ campaign.
One disadvantage the Liberals have been up against in this campaign is its timing. The Nov. 30 byelection falls in between when Ontario Liberal members voted in their ridings last weekend in the party’s leadership contest, and this upcoming weekend, when those ballots will be counted and its new leader will be announced.
Many of the most dedicated Liberal organizers and volunteers were preoccupied with the homestretch of the party’s leadership contest for much of the four-week-long byelection campaign.
Steiss said “there’s no coincidence” that Premier Doug Ford set the Kitchener Centre byelection date when he did.
For Ontario’s Liberals, a byelection win would signal continuing momentum after they swept a pair of provincial byelections — ultimately gaining them one seat and retaining them another — in July.
“There’s just been a spark of excitement about being Liberal again,” Crombie said.
Part of Steiss’ pitch to voters, she said, is for them to send the “strong representation” of an MPP in the party that sees itself as the government-in-waiting.
“We are looking to govern again in 2026… and the Liberal Party is ready and I want to be there for the people of Kitchener to make sure that our voices are heard and our needs are met,” Steiss said.
A byelection victory by the Liberals would bring their seat count at Queen’s Park to 10 — their highest total since the party’s decimation in the 2018 election. That amount would open up some interesting possibilities for the Liberals’ incoming leader by bringing them two seats shy of being a recognized caucus in the legislature. The 12-MPP official status entitles parties to funding and other privileges they aren’t otherwise afforded.
Tough times loom over byelection
One thing the Liberal, Green and NDP candidates all agreed on was that affordability was the central issue in the byelection.
Each of them is promising to use what would be their opposition role to push to remove barriers to the construction of affordable homes, including rental units, and to improve protections for tenants.
“The main reason I’m running right now is because of the housing portfolio, if I can call it that,” Chapman said. “There’s just so much that’s not being done in a way that meets the needs of the population.”
Priorities listed on Clancy’s website also include improving access to affordable child care.
Chapman’s listed priorities also include raising wages. Her and Steiss’ campaigns have also both promised to push for increases to Ontario Disability Support Program and Ontario Works payments — which Ontario’s Greens have been proponents of as well.
PCs MIA
One component that’s been missing from the Kitchener Centre byelection is a strong effort by Ford’s Progressive Conservatives.
PC candidate Rob Elliott doesn’t live in the riding and has skipped debates and other all-candidates events. During its visit to Kitchener Centre, The Trillium observed little to suggest the Conservatives had put in even a fraction of the effort as the three other major parties.
The party’s spokesperson didn’t respond to an interview request sent in an email.
Whether it be because of Kitchener Centre’s progressive party-favouring recent history, or that the PCs felt a gung-ho effort wouldn’t be worth it after their disappointing byelection results in the summer, or after their Greenbelt scandal-hindered fall — the governing party appears to have effectively thrown in the towel.
The last time the PCs held Kitchener Centre provincially was from 1999 to 2003. PC Party candidates have received more than 25 per cent of votes in every one of its elections since, placing second, or extremely close to second, every time.
In any event, the PCs’ almost two-thirds majority at Queen’s Park is safe regardless of this Thursday’s result. They’ll also be expected to mount a much stronger effort in the Lambton—Kent—Middlesex byelection to replace longtime labour minister Monte McNaughton, which will be held sometime in the New Year.
Elections Ontario said 5,405 people (6.2 per cent of registered voters) cast ballots during the three advance polling days of the Kitchener Centre byelection. About twice as many people voted in the riding during the 10 advance polling days in the June 2022 election.
Byelections usually have lower turnouts than general elections, which tend to attract much more media attention.
Kitchener Centre’s turnout was slightly higher than the average riding’s in the last two provincial general elections.
