In less than two weeks, Ontario’s Liberals will at last begin to shape their party’s future.
Upwards of 1,400 party members are expected to attend the Ontario Liberal Party’s (OLP) annual general meeting in Hamilton from March 3 to 5.
Many Liberal sources who spoke to The Trillium for this story feel it’s the party’s most consequential get-together in decades.
The party’s in a dire position. In last June's election, the Liberals were kept out of the government and official opposition benches for the second consecutive time — a first in its 150-plus-year history. The Liberals aren’t recognized as an official party at Queen’s Park, leaving them short on the same critical resources that hindered their last performance. They’ve been in leadership limbo since election night, when Steven Del Duca, who took the helm of the party in 2020 and is now Vaughan’s mayor, stepped down.
At the three-day Hamilton meeting, the party will chart its way forward, making decisions that will influence who becomes the next OLP leader.
Delegates’ decision on whether to change party elections to a one-member-one-vote system is the weekend’s marquee agenda item — but another proposal to be voted on has the potential to kill the prospective leadership campaign that everyone’s been talking about.
#DraftMike
Liberal circles have been buzzing ever since a collection of 39 prominent politicos — including former Liberal cabinet ministers, 2022 candidates, and high-ranking former staff — signed an open letter urging Ontario Green Leader Mike Schreiner to run to lead the OLP.
The signatories of the letter knew it would make waves, but one who spoke to The Trillium said the intensity of the reaction caught them by surprise.
Abandoning the party's delegated leadership convention system for one-member-one-vote elections would theoretically attract more people to the party. The #DraftMike signatories see their effort as having a similar spirit.
If Schreiner became Ontario Liberal Party leader, he’d attract Green Party members, as well as people who aren’t involved in partisan politics, the signatory source said. “It will be environmentalists, and people who believe in the housing initiatives,” as well as those who want social justice issues to be more front and centre, they said.
In the weeks since they released the #DraftMike letter, its signatories have been preparing a campaign team for him, the one who spoke to The Trillium said.
Schreiner is considering the idea. He’s followed through with serious discussions he said he’d have, including with Greens, his constituents in Guelph, and Liberals, the signatory source said.
He’s yet to make up his mind yet, however.
To attend the Hamilton meeting, Schreiner would have to be an OLP member, and he has until March 2 to become one.
Six Liberals who spoke to The Trillium said they think it’s unlikely he’ll show at the AGM, and while the #DraftMike signatory said it would be a missed opportunity, they don’t view his attendance as make-it or break-it for his potential leadership candidacy.
“You don’t get that many Liberals in a room that often,” the signatory source said. “But if he’s not ready to decide, he’s not ready.”
Others with OLP leadership ambitions — including MPP Ted Hsu and Liberal MPs Yasir Naqvi and Nate Erskine-Smith — aren’t expected to officially declare their candidacies until the contest’s rules are set, which won’t happen until weeks after the Hamilton meeting.
There is a proposal by Orléans MPP Stephen Blais that would sink Schreiner’s prospects. It would amend the party’s constitution to require leadership candidates to have been an OLP member since at least the beginning of the year in which a leadership election is held.
Blais’s amendment was interpreted by three Liberals who The Trillium spoke to as a direct shot at Schreiner. None felt it would receive the two-thirds of votes needed for it to pass.
The proposal may stand a better chance than if it hadn’t come from an MPP, and could be made more palatable if it’s amended, a pair of Liberal sources said.
Meanwhile, the #DraftMike signatories may be in for a lukewarm welcome in Hamilton.
Alex Byrne-Krzycki, a Wynne-era Liberal staffer who will be attending as a delegate, said he could foresee some in the party having “heated tempers” over what’s a “silly” proposal, in his view.
But ultimately, “they’re good Liberals too, they’re just trying a different idea,” said Byrne-Krzycki.
One member, one vote
Mitzie Hunter, deputy to interim leader John Fraser, is again the de-facto champion of the one-member-one-vote push within the party.
Hunter’s Scarborough—Guildwood riding association worked closely with the central party to spearhead the proposal to amend the Ontario Liberals’ constitution to change its leadership selection process to be closer to that of many other major parties in Canada.
The Liberal Party of Canada, for example, abandoned its delegate-selection process in favour of a one-member-one-vote system in the lead-up to that 2013 leadership election that Justin Trudeau won.
Party delegates have long held the power to elect the provincial party’s leaders. These delegates are local riding association representatives, current and former MPPs and MPs, and other members and ex-officios of various official standings. About 2,000 delegates cast ballots at the 2020 leadership convention, putting Del Duca atop the party.
A one-member-one-vote push by Hunter and others before the last leadership contest came up just short. As a constitutional change, it can only be made if two-thirds of delegates support it in a vote. Just shy of 60 per cent voted in favour of the switch in 2019.
This time, the circumstances are different. For one, Del Duca’s leadership bid had been launched months before delegates voted on the proposal that would have effectively overhauled the contest. This gave some delegates, including Fadi El Masry, now a candidate for party president, pause back then.
El Masry has said he voted against one-member-one-vote in 2019 because he didn’t want to change the rules midway through what he saw as an ongoing leadership contest. He’s been ardently advocating for the change in the lead-up to the Hamilton meeting.
Byrne-Krzycki said he’ll be voting in favour of switching to a one-member-one-vote system. He said it’s time to make the change, which incentivizes people to join the party, helping it grow.
“Delegated conventions were great for a time and a place where you actually had to organize people to send them to a convention and hash it out,” Byrne-Krzycki said.
“We should open it up. We should have more voices. It’s the way to go, and the way of the future, especially now that it can be done safely and effectively,” he added.
Most of the Liberal sources The Trillium spoke to for this story were confident the one-member-one-vote push will be a success in Hamilton, including Hunter herself.
“Having done its debrief after the 2022 election, people said clearly [to the party] that we need to change our leadership selection process,” Hunter said.
“I am confident that members of the party will see the need to move towards a one-member-one-vote at this stage of our party. It's an opportunity for us to renew, to rebuild, and to prepare for 2026,” she added.
Before voting on whether to make the jump, members will vote on exactly how a one-member-one-vote system will work. Once that’s ironed out, the big question will be put to the floor. One of the biggest considerations is whether to have a weighted system or one where each member’s vote is equal.
Three sources told The Trillium they think a weighted system will win the day. Such a system could look something like what the federal Conservative Party uses, where each riding is assigned 100 points, but if there are very few actual party members in the riding, it’s worth less in the overall count.
The signatory source said Schreiner would do better in a weighted one-member-one-vote election, but also thinks he could pull it off at a delegated convention.
Three other party sources said they didn’t see any of the potential leadership candidates gaining a major advantage from the change.
“It makes it a level playing field,” said Byrne-Krzycki.
High stakes
The major decisions the Ontario Liberal Party will be making in Hamilton don’t end with one-member-one-vote.
A new party executive will be voted in. The executive, led by the president, is in charge of the party’s administration. On top of ensuring the Ontario Liberals’ day-to-day operations go smoothly, the executive will also be responsible for planning the party’s leadership election.
Most members of the party’s current executive aren’t seeking re-election, meaning a mostly novice group will take over after the convention.
The election of the executive’s top role also stands to be one of the most competitive elections for the party’s presidency in decades.
It’s a three-person race at this point, between El Masry, Natalie Hart, and Kathryn McGarry. All have been involved with the party for some time. El Masry is the youngest candidate in the race.
McGarry has a long history in electoral politics, having been an MPP and minister in the Wynne government, before serving as Cambridge’s mayor from 2018 to 2022.
Coincidentally, the Ontario Liberals’ annual general meeting is also taking place where a byelection will be held less than two weeks later. Constituents of Hamilton Centre will elect a replacement for the NDP’s former leader Andrea Horwath on March 16.
Deirdre Pike, who worked for the Social Planning and Research Council of Hamilton for 20 years, is the Liberal candidate. She faces long odds to get elected.
Hamilton is known as New Democrat territory. In the history of the current iteration of Hamilton Centre, dating back to 2007, Horwath received 44 per cent of votes, or more, in every election.
Pike told The Trillium she’ll be speaking at the Ontario Liberals’ annual general meeting, and that she intends to draw on visiting Liberals for extra canvassing support.
While there are weighty topics on the agenda and potential drama looming with the #DraftMike movement, every source The Trillium spoke to said they’re excited to attend the first in-person AGM in a while and play a role in shaping the future of the party.
— with files from Jessica Smith Cross
