The last few months have produced pieces of a puzzle that could reshape Queen's Park.
A revived Ontario Liberal Party is inching toward being officially recognized in the legislature — a privilege coming with important resources that it hasn't enjoyed since 2018.
In the meantime, how a couple more dominoes fall before the end of the year could present the potential for a non-traditional arrangement that would offer a new challenge to Premier Doug Ford's government even sooner.
With nine seats, the Liberals hold their highest tally since before the 2018 election, which reduced them to seven MPPs. Their current total leaves them three short of recognition by the legislature.
By being technically considered independents at Queen's Park, the Liberals are shut out of millions of dollars in funding that recognized caucuses of 12 or more MPPs receive to pay for staff and more, they get fewer opportunities to debate and challenge Ford and his ministers in question period, and less representation on parliamentary committees.
Following the most recent two byelections, which were held concurrently on July 27, Ontario's Liberals are the only political party that now has more elected MPPs than it did after last year's general election. Retaining Scarborough—Guildwood and winning Kanata—Carleton netted them a one-seat gain.
They've got a chance to make another seat pickup at the end of this month. On Nov. 30, a replacement for Laura Mae Lindo will be elected Kitchener Centre. Lindo, who was an NDP MPP, gave up her seat on July 13.
With no polling on the contest yet published, it's expected in the early goings of the month-long campaign to be a true four-candidate race. The provincial riding of Kitchener Centre was Liberal-held from 2003 to 2018, when Lindo took it over for the NDP. A PC candidate has placed second in the six votes held over that time frame, consistently receiving 25 per cent or more support. The overlapping federal riding is currently Green Party-repped by MP Mike Morrice.
A second byelection is looming, but in a riding that's a safer bet for the PCs being the favourite. Ford has until mid-spring to call a vote in Lambton—Kent—Middlesex to replace longtime cabinet minister Monte McNaughton, who resigned from being an MPP on Oct. 6. Although the Liberals had held the seat before McNaughton's election in 2011, the riding and those around it have generally favoured Conservatives over the last few decades.
Ontario's Liberals, however, have shown other signs of life recently outside of their byelection victories over the summer. Their leadership contest has brought a record number of new members to the party. It's also led to a resurgence of fundraising and helped them pay off the debt they held from the 2022 election far more quickly than they did after 2018.
Bonnie Crombie, Mississauga's mayor and a former Liberal MP, is the presumed favourite in the Liberals' leadership election. At a joint announcement staged to encourage their supporters to select the other as their second choice in the leadership election, candidates Nate Erskine-Smith and Yasir Naqvi insisted a Crombie victory is far from a sure thing under the party's new ranked-ballot system.
But even scoring two byelection wins wouldn't give the Liberals the 12-seat threshold of recognized party status at Queen's Park. One looming question is the future of Mississauga East—Cooksville MPP Kaleed Rasheed. First elected for the PCs in 2018, Rasheed exited Ford's cabinet and the PC caucus on Sept. 20 over his role in an early 2020 jaunt to Las Vegas that a Greenbelt developer was also a part of, which The Trillium broke the news of.
Since leaving the Ford government, Rasheed has lain low, including by deactivating social media accounts. But he remains an Independent MPP.
Ontario's integrity commissioner is currently considering whether to further investigate Rasheed over the Vegas trip and the incorrect information the MPP provided the office about it during the commissioner's earlier Greenbelt probe.
Although Rasheed and Ford's office each said in statements that he could return to the PCs if he can "clear his name" with the integrity commissioner, several sources in and close to the Ford government have told The Trillium they don't expect him to rejoin the government caucus.
The law the legislature's ethics watchdog would be investigating Rasheed under also stipulates that the integrity commissioner "shall suspend an inquiry" into an MPP if they step down.
The Election Act requires the premier to call a byelection within six months of an MPP's resignation.
A vacancy in Mississauga East—Cooksville would pose a tempting opportunity for Crombie to run provincially — whether she becomes leader of the Ontario Liberals or not (Crombie said at a debate on Sept. 20 that she would run for Ontario's Liberals in the next election even if she isn't elected leader).
Crombie has won landslide victories in three consecutive Mississauga mayoral elections. Rasheed only beat his Liberal opponent in Mississauga East—Cooksville by 3.57 per cent of votes in 2022.
The Liberals' byelection prospects aside, the current slate of MPPs sitting as true independents or in unrecognized parties poses a unique opportunity that a multi-partisan 12-MPP group could benefit from. The concept wouldn't be far from how groups of nine-plus Senators at the federal level have come to more commonly organize in recent years to benefit from caucus funding that they wouldn't otherwise receive.
A multi-partisan group of 12-plus MPPs would require participation by the nine-seat Liberals. Including Rasheed, there are currently five truly party-less independent MPPs. Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner rounds out the 15 total MPPs who aren't in a recognized party at the legislature.
Three of the four Liberal leadership candidates — Erskine-Smith, Naqvi and Ted Hsu — expressed varying degrees of interest in the possibility.
"I think we should take the opportunity, should it arise, to try and form a 'recognized party,'" wrote Hsu in response to questions from The Trillium. "Currently, independents are put at a significant disadvantage as speaking opportunities (are less), meaning fewer chances for us to voice our constituents' concerns."
Hsu is the lone Liberal leadership candidate currently holding a seat at Queen's Park, representing Kingston and the Islands.
"I'd consider the idea," wrote Erskine-Smith, who acknowledged the value that a recognized party including non-Liberals would bring while also adding that he's "not convinced it would work effectively unless there are shared values, ideas, and commitment to open discussion and collaboration among members."
A spokesperson for Naqvi's campaign neither endorsed nor rejected the idea, writing in an email, "If elected leader, Yasir looks forward to discussing with all members of provincial parliament about how to move forward in a constructive manner."
"Yasir has had no conversations with other leaders and has no current plans to, as he is spending his time transforming the Ontario Liberal Party so we can defeat Doug Ford in 2026."
Crombie, meanwhile, isn't considering "any schemes to try to artificially achieve the resources offered to official parties," her campaign team said. "Bonnie is committed to growing the Ontario Liberal caucus the old-fashioned way: through hard work and presenting a vision Ontario voters trust," her campaign added.
Hsu, who was the Liberal leadership hopeful most interested in the possibility, outlined a number of caveats he would have to form a temporary 12-MPP "Ontario caucus" or "Independent caucus" until the Liberals themselves hold that many seats.
"We won’t dilute or sacrifice our Liberal brand, or insist that others do so with their brands, so we’ll choose carefully and we won’t choose those who are independents simply because they are in the 'penalty box.,'" Hsu said.
The result of the Kitchener Centre byelection is a significant factor as well, he added.
"Additionally, this process would have to be of mutual benefit. I wouldn't compel other non-OLP independents, but I would invite. If I were to have conversations, I would discuss the benefits of having a joint independent caucus," Hsu said.
He acknowledged as well that "people will think of this as the 'Liberal caucus' even if that's not its name and so non-Liberal members would have to a) share at least some Liberal values and b) be comfortable with being a part of what will be thought of as the 'Liberal caucus' even though it would have some other name."
Asked about the possibility of such an arrangement, two of the three non-Liberal MPPs seen as the likeliest prospects expressed coolness towards the idea.
"If I form some sort of coalition, I’m going to have to tow a line. My constituents don’t want me towing any party line," wrote Bobbi Ann Brady, the Independent MPP for Haldimand—Norfolk. "I get along with everyone in the House, and I will continue to foster those relationships as an independent member."
Brady was elected as an Independent last year. She was previously a staffer for Toby Barrett, the longtime PC MPP of her riding. Brady ran independently after the PCs picked a rival of Barrett's as their candidate instead of her.
Mike Mantha, Algoma—Manitoulin's MPP since 2011, said he's "been completely focused on representing Algoma-Manitoulin effectively at Queen’s Park, working across party lines to deliver on the priorities of people in my riding" since becoming an independent earlier this year.
Mantha has sat as an independent since early this year when NDP Leader Marit Stiles booted him over allegations of "workplace misconduct."
"My intent is to contest the 2026 election as an independent candidate and run on my record as an MPP who is willing to work with anyone interested in creating opportunity and prosperity in Algoma-Manitoulin and across northern Ontario," Mantha added.
A spokesperson for the Green Party said they weren't able to respond to questions about whether Schreiner would be interested in a multi-partisan 12-MPP caucus because of the attention they were paying to the Kitchener Centre byelection at the moment.
Schreiner, the lone Green MPP at Queen's Park since his election in 2018, has fashioned himself as someone willing to work across party lines. Early this year, Schreiner was compelled by a cohort of Liberals to run for the party's leadership. He considered the idea for a few weeks before ultimately turning it down.
Ford's Progressive Conservatives have faced only one formally recognized party in the Ontario legislature since 2018: the official Opposition NDP.
The PCs can take partial credit for why the Liberals haven't sniffed third-party opposition status for so long. One of the first bills they passed after forming government in 2018 by raising the number of seats a party needs to be recognized by the legislature.
