A draft of a briefing document prepared for the Ontario cabinet highlighted research showing prohibiting bike lanes doesn’t solve traffic congestion and, instead, often has the opposite effect.
“This initiative may not reduce congestion as most research (e.g. New York, Washington, Vancouver) suggests reducing road capacity by introducing bike lanes can encourage biking and discourage car use, alleviating congestion,” reads an internal government document created in the summer.
The Trillium obtained the document from an advocacy group, which received it from an unknown source. A well-placed government source confirmed its authenticity.
A spokesperson for Transportation Minister Prabmeet Sarkaria declined to comment on the information in the document without seeing the original document. The Trillium was prevented from providing the full document to the government by conditions placed on it by the original source meant to protect them from being exposed.
The document, marked "draft," appears to have been prepared for Premier Doug Ford and his cabinet ministers before his government announced it would remove three Toronto bike lanes and ban new ones across the province that would remove a lane of traffic.
This kind of briefing document is typically prepared with input from both civil servants and ministers' office staffers and could undergo many changes before being presented to the cabinet, sources familiar with the government's process told The Trillium.
The briefing document outlines “high risk level” issues with the proposed legislation, including potential negative reactions from municipalities, environmentalists and cyclists.
“The province may be seen as encroaching on municipal decision-making authority," the document reads, adding there is a "risk of jeopardizing progress made through the Toronto and Ottawa New Deals."
Toronto City Council has voted to oppose the bill, though Mayor Olivia Chow has said she’s open to some changes to bike lanes. Ottawa’s mayor has said he won’t stand in the province’s way.
The Association of Municipalities of Ontario has also come out against the changes.
Civil servants cautioned that wading into the oft-contentious bike lane battle could mean the province faces blowback from angry residents.
“The province would be seen as owning local decisions, including the approvals or denial of new bike lanes,” the document reads.
Toronto city council asked staff to look into putting up signs along the to-be-removed bike lanes blaming the premier for congestion.
The document also warned the bike lane law could undermine other provincial housing and transportation efforts.
“This initiative may run counter to other provincial initiatives (such as Transit Oriented Communities, FMLM, Cargo E-Bikes, E-Scooter, and safe active transportation and support to local businesses),” the document reads.
FMLM refers to “first and last mile,” meaning how people get to transportation hubs like GO stations or subway lines. Many governments have sought to discourage FMLM trips via car, instead promoting bike sharing and walkability.
The document also outlines reasons cities could get approval to install a new bike lane and problems the province could face trying to verify those claims. The province hasn't yet fully outlined its removal criteria.
According to the document, there are “significant implementation risks” to creating the process by which the government will review new bike lane proposals.
The province may ask cities to provide a “general rationale” for why certain streets need bike lanes. These could include reasons like better access to transit.
The province may also ask for “quantifiable impacts” such as how bike lanes affect road safety for all users, how emergency response times differ, changes to car volumes and how bike lane construction affects traffic.
The document suggests the province will likely need to spend more money or hire more people to review requests.
It warns the province doesn’t currently have access to municipal cycling and local traffic data and won’t be able to independently verify data sent by cities as part of an exemption request.
Whatever the process is, the decision to approve a bike lane will rest with Sarkaria, he said during an Oct. 15 press conference.
It also suggests the Ministry of Transportation will prepare a report on the bike lane ban’s efficacy in 2027-28.
This article was updated to clarify that the spokesperson for the Minister of Transportation declined to comment because The Trillium declined to provide the full document in order to protect the source.
